Stock Watch: Running backs
ESPN INSIDER
More than a few free-agent running backs found new homes this offseason and figure to start with their new clubs, but is it enough to simply assume fantasy stock has risen for those fellows? As you’ll see below, this week’s version of the offseason stock watch looks at running backs -- last week it was quarterbacks, next week it’s wide receivers! -- and features a large portion of transplanted veterans, but a few of those guys might be able to contribute to the level fantasy owners expect.
Of course, it should be noted that the offseason is far from over. The pending NFL draft could certainly alter stock, as well. Until we actually know where the intriguing college players will land -- and even the ones we might not find interesting today -- it’s understandable to reserve some judgment. That’s fine, as we’ll just have to update the stock watch later in the summer!
Stock rising
Eric’s updated top 40 RBs for 2014
Tier 1
1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Tier 2
4. Matt Forte, Bears
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
6. Eddie Lacy, Packers
Tier 3
7. Arian Foster, Texans
8. Doug Martin, Buccaneers
9. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
10. Zac Stacy, Rams
11. Montee Ball, Broncos
Tier 4
12. Alfred Morris, Redskins
13. Giovani Bernard, Bengals
14. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Tier 5
15. Frank Gore, 49ers
16. Reggie Bush, Lions
17. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
18. Ben Tate, Browns
19. C.J. Spiller, Bills
Tier 6
20. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
21. Chris Johnson, Jets
22. Ray Rice, Ravens
23. Shane Vereen, Patriots
24. Steven Jackson, Falcons
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, Raiders
Tier 7
26. Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
27. Trent Richardson, Colts
28. Rashad Jennings, Giants
29. Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins
Tier 8
30. Joique Bell, Lions
31. Darren Sproles, Eagles
32. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
33. Fred Jackson, Bills
34. Shonn Greene, Titans
Tier 9
35. Khiry Robinson, Saints
36. Chris Ivory, Jets
37. Mark Ingram, Saints
38. David Wilson, Giants
39. Danny Woodhead, Chargers
40. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns: Finally freed from the shadows of Arian Foster in Houston, Tate figures to be the undisputed starter in Cleveland, and a productive one if health allows. This is the lone running back in my top 20 to have changed organizations. Is Tate a future star? I doubt it, but sheer volume of touches should make him a weekly play, and I’ll be honest -- even if I’m alone on this, I think Cleveland’s offense is very interesting.
Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars: Speaking of shadows, how would you like to back up Adrian Peterson for your first four seasons? It appears that Gerhart has game, but who really knows until he receives a starter’s workload on a consistent basis? After all, he’s carried the football 276 times in his career. It doesn’t mean he can do this for a full season. Still, opportunity came knocking, and this could be an RB2 at a far cheaper cost.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders: I like this signing, actually, and the reason MJD missed my top 20 is hardly due to the presence of brittle Darren McFadden. It’s because Jones-Drew also isn’t the healthiest, youngest or swiftest guy around. I do think he can muster up one more solid season.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The torn labrum is fixed and he’s ready for full-time work. Considering how valuable he was as a rookie, one can make the case he’s back in the first round this year. It would be so much better if the Bucs played the Raiders; Martin embarrassed Oakland for 251 rushing yards and four scores in 2012. Martin started 2013 slowly, though, which has many skeptical.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans: As with Martin, as long as he’s healthy, I’m buying. The Andre Brown signing in Houston doesn’t scare me. Perhaps Foster can’t return to his top-scoring ways at the age of 28 (in August), but I’m not writing him off quite yet.
Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals: In theory, the surprise retirement of Rashard Mendenhall alone should move Ellington up draft boards. However, if the Cardinals don’t intend to use this guy to actually run the football, and they choose to find another larger back to share duties with him, the impact will be lessened.
Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: Well, it’s his job now. Don’t fumble it away, kid.
Stock falling
Chris Johnson, New York Jets: I wasn’t a big fan of his in the first place ever since his really big season, and heading to this North Jersey team doesn’t seem like the kind of move that will rejuvenate his statistics. Even if he wasn’t sharing the football (which he will be) and even if the quarterback wasn’t erratic and turnover-prone (which both Geno Smith and Michael Vick are), the fact is that Johnson just isn’t as effective as he used to be. I’ve ranked him higher than my colleagues and think he can be an RB2, but still, this is not someone to rely on. I will not.
Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins: Obviously, he couldn’t stay in Denver, but man, this offense is really far from Denver’s. Instead of Peyton Manning slinging the football all over the field, it’s Ryan Tannehill, and defenses will surely prepare for Moreno differently, in that he’ll find they’re actually preparing. The No. 5 running back from 2013 is now a flex option. And forget about Lamar Miller.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: He struggled on the field last season and then got himself into some legal woes over the winter. Reports say he’s lost weight and he’s in great shape and … well, I’m just not buying a return to greatness. Draft him as a flex option.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: What’s not to like, right? Well, I still like Reggie Bush and think new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, formerly of the Saints, will keep Bush very involved. Bell might have been able to bolt for bigger bucks and more touches elsewhere, but he opted to stay in Detroit.
Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers: I didn’t want to believe in Ryan Mathews heading into the 2013 season, but his second half was pretty strong and there’s little reason for concern. Plus, Danny Woodhead is a serious pass-catcher. I just don’t see Brown getting many chances here, while back in Indianapolis the running back door remains open unless Trent Richardson does something about it.
ESPN INSIDER
More than a few free-agent running backs found new homes this offseason and figure to start with their new clubs, but is it enough to simply assume fantasy stock has risen for those fellows? As you’ll see below, this week’s version of the offseason stock watch looks at running backs -- last week it was quarterbacks, next week it’s wide receivers! -- and features a large portion of transplanted veterans, but a few of those guys might be able to contribute to the level fantasy owners expect.
Of course, it should be noted that the offseason is far from over. The pending NFL draft could certainly alter stock, as well. Until we actually know where the intriguing college players will land -- and even the ones we might not find interesting today -- it’s understandable to reserve some judgment. That’s fine, as we’ll just have to update the stock watch later in the summer!
Stock rising
Eric’s updated top 40 RBs for 2014
Tier 1
1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Tier 2
4. Matt Forte, Bears
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
6. Eddie Lacy, Packers
Tier 3
7. Arian Foster, Texans
8. Doug Martin, Buccaneers
9. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
10. Zac Stacy, Rams
11. Montee Ball, Broncos
Tier 4
12. Alfred Morris, Redskins
13. Giovani Bernard, Bengals
14. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Tier 5
15. Frank Gore, 49ers
16. Reggie Bush, Lions
17. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
18. Ben Tate, Browns
19. C.J. Spiller, Bills
Tier 6
20. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
21. Chris Johnson, Jets
22. Ray Rice, Ravens
23. Shane Vereen, Patriots
24. Steven Jackson, Falcons
25. Maurice Jones-Drew, Raiders
Tier 7
26. Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
27. Trent Richardson, Colts
28. Rashad Jennings, Giants
29. Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins
Tier 8
30. Joique Bell, Lions
31. Darren Sproles, Eagles
32. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
33. Fred Jackson, Bills
34. Shonn Greene, Titans
Tier 9
35. Khiry Robinson, Saints
36. Chris Ivory, Jets
37. Mark Ingram, Saints
38. David Wilson, Giants
39. Danny Woodhead, Chargers
40. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns: Finally freed from the shadows of Arian Foster in Houston, Tate figures to be the undisputed starter in Cleveland, and a productive one if health allows. This is the lone running back in my top 20 to have changed organizations. Is Tate a future star? I doubt it, but sheer volume of touches should make him a weekly play, and I’ll be honest -- even if I’m alone on this, I think Cleveland’s offense is very interesting.
Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars: Speaking of shadows, how would you like to back up Adrian Peterson for your first four seasons? It appears that Gerhart has game, but who really knows until he receives a starter’s workload on a consistent basis? After all, he’s carried the football 276 times in his career. It doesn’t mean he can do this for a full season. Still, opportunity came knocking, and this could be an RB2 at a far cheaper cost.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders: I like this signing, actually, and the reason MJD missed my top 20 is hardly due to the presence of brittle Darren McFadden. It’s because Jones-Drew also isn’t the healthiest, youngest or swiftest guy around. I do think he can muster up one more solid season.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The torn labrum is fixed and he’s ready for full-time work. Considering how valuable he was as a rookie, one can make the case he’s back in the first round this year. It would be so much better if the Bucs played the Raiders; Martin embarrassed Oakland for 251 rushing yards and four scores in 2012. Martin started 2013 slowly, though, which has many skeptical.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans: As with Martin, as long as he’s healthy, I’m buying. The Andre Brown signing in Houston doesn’t scare me. Perhaps Foster can’t return to his top-scoring ways at the age of 28 (in August), but I’m not writing him off quite yet.
Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals: In theory, the surprise retirement of Rashard Mendenhall alone should move Ellington up draft boards. However, if the Cardinals don’t intend to use this guy to actually run the football, and they choose to find another larger back to share duties with him, the impact will be lessened.
Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: Well, it’s his job now. Don’t fumble it away, kid.
Stock falling
Chris Johnson, New York Jets: I wasn’t a big fan of his in the first place ever since his really big season, and heading to this North Jersey team doesn’t seem like the kind of move that will rejuvenate his statistics. Even if he wasn’t sharing the football (which he will be) and even if the quarterback wasn’t erratic and turnover-prone (which both Geno Smith and Michael Vick are), the fact is that Johnson just isn’t as effective as he used to be. I’ve ranked him higher than my colleagues and think he can be an RB2, but still, this is not someone to rely on. I will not.
Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins: Obviously, he couldn’t stay in Denver, but man, this offense is really far from Denver’s. Instead of Peyton Manning slinging the football all over the field, it’s Ryan Tannehill, and defenses will surely prepare for Moreno differently, in that he’ll find they’re actually preparing. The No. 5 running back from 2013 is now a flex option. And forget about Lamar Miller.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: He struggled on the field last season and then got himself into some legal woes over the winter. Reports say he’s lost weight and he’s in great shape and … well, I’m just not buying a return to greatness. Draft him as a flex option.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: What’s not to like, right? Well, I still like Reggie Bush and think new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, formerly of the Saints, will keep Bush very involved. Bell might have been able to bolt for bigger bucks and more touches elsewhere, but he opted to stay in Detroit.
Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers: I didn’t want to believe in Ryan Mathews heading into the 2013 season, but his second half was pretty strong and there’s little reason for concern. Plus, Danny Woodhead is a serious pass-catcher. I just don’t see Brown getting many chances here, while back in Indianapolis the running back door remains open unless Trent Richardson does something about it.
